The Necessity of Establishing an Iranian School of Futures Studies: Elucidating the Epistemological Framework and the Initial Conceptual Model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Futures Studies Department, School of Strategic Management, National Defense University, Tehran, Iran.(Corresponding Author).

2 Full Professor, School of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The concept of an “Iranian School of Futures Studies” as an epistemological–methodological framework has served as the foundation for many influential futures studies traditions in leading countries. Despite the emergence of various schools worldwide (American, French, Scandinavian, Australian, etc.), the Islamic Republic of Iran still lacks a coherent and indigenous futures studies school capable of interpreting and shaping the future based on its own epistemic, cultural, and civilizational foundations. The aim of the present study is to articulate the necessity of establishing an Iranian School of Futures Studies and to propose its initial model through theoretical analysis and empirical data.This research adopts a qualitative–integrative approach and employs an interpretive framework. In the first stage, a systematic literature review was conducted, and the core concepts of different futures schools were extracted. In the second stage, semi-structured interviews were carried out with 12 experts in futures studies, philosophy of science, Islamic humanities, and governance. The collected data were analyzed through three rounds of open, axial, and selective coding. In the third stage, thematic analysis based on the Braun and Clarke model led to the identification of four overarching themes and twelve axial themes. In the final stage, using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), a three-level model of the Iranian School of Futures Studies was developed, consisting of: (1) epistemological–philosophical foundation, (2) cultural–civilizational foundation, and
(3) institutional–applied foundation. The findings indicate that the Iranian School of Futures Studies is grounded in the integration of a monotheistic worldview, ethical anthropology, Islamic philosophy of history, Iranian-Islamic identity, and futures-oriented governance. This school can provide a conceptual framework for knowledge production and strategic decision-making in the Islamic Republic of Iran. By presenting the first coherent model of the Iranian School of Futures Studies, this study bridges the existing theoretical gap within the literature on indigenous futures studies

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References

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History

  • Receive Date: 24 September 2025
  • Revise Date: 02 January 2026
  • Accept Date: 15 March 2026
  • First Publish Date: 21 March 2026
  • Publish Date: 21 March 2026

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